Commanders at 49ers
Monday 20:15 ET · Levi's Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
78%49ers win chance
SF -7.4sim spread
52.1sim total
21.4 · 30.3WAS · SF team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey SF | rush + rec yds Over 99.5 | 56.0% | -127 | market |
| Austin Ekeler WAS | rush attempts Over 1.5 | 55.3% | -124 | our odds |
| Jayden Daniels WAS | passing yds Over 199.5 | 55.0% | -122 | market |
| Chig Okonkwo WAS | receptions Over 2.5 | 55.0% | -122 | market |
| Stefon Diggs WAS | receptions Over 1.5 | 54.8% | -121 | our odds |
| Dyami Brown WAS | receiving yds Over 9.5 | 54.5% | -120 | our odds |
| Austin Ekeler WAS | receptions Over 0.5 | 53.8% | -116 | our odds |
| Jayden Daniels WAS | rush attempts Over 6.5 | 53.0% | -113 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey SF | 69.5% | -228 | 1 |
| Mike Evans SF | 53.5% | -115 | 1 |
| George Kittle SF | 46.5% | +115 | 0 |
| Rachaad White WAS | 39.5% | +153 | 1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS | 38.5% | +160 | 2 |
| Terry McLaurin WAS | 30.0% | +233 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels WAS | 26.5% | +277 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks SF | 25.0% | +300 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy SF | 22.5% | +344 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler WAS | 21.5% | +365 | 0 |
WAS · 5 games
Commanders usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game23.0 #17
- Pass yds / game197.0 #25
- Rush yds / game139.6 #6
- Points allowed / game29.8 #30
- Pass yds allowed / game268.8 #29
- Rush yds allowed / game95.4 #8
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt6 carries · 1 target
- Rachaad White4 carries · 2 targets
- Jayden Daniels5 carries · 0 targets
- Kaytron Allen4 carries · 0 targets
- Terry McLaurin0 carries · 4 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt2
- Stefon Diggs1
- Rachaad White1
- Treylon Burks1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 3 | 153.0 | 1.00 | 25.3 | 60.5 | 67.7 | 18 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 5 | 13.4 | 47.8 | 1.4 | 8.0 | 2 | 27% |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 7.2 | 29.5 | 2.5 | 13.2 | 1 | 18% |
| Kaytron Allen | 3 | 4.0 | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 18% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 4 | 7.8 | 24% | 4.5 | 42.5 | 3 | 22% |
| Terry McLaurin | 4 | 6.5 | 22% | 3.5 | 50.8 | 1 | 22% |
| Antonio Williams | 5 | 4.4 | 14% | 3.0 | 31.0 | 1 | 11% |
| Dyami Brown | 5 | 3.0 | 10% | 1.6 | 17.6 | 0 | 6% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4.3 | 16% | 2.7 | 27.0 | 0 | 0% |
| John Bates | 3 | 1.7 | 6% | 1.3 | 7.7 | 0 | 11% |
SF · 5 games
49ers usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game30.8 #3
- Pass yds / game239.2 #16
- Rush yds / game128.6 #8
- Points allowed / game18.6 #3
- Pass yds allowed / game210.8 #8
- Rush yds allowed / game97.6 #11
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Christian McCaffrey14 carries · 3 targets
- Kaelon Black7 carries · 0 targets
- Mike Evans0 carries · 7 targets
- George Kittle0 carries · 6 targets
- Deebo Samuel Sr.0 carries · 5 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Deebo Samuel Sr.2
- Demarcus Robinson1
- Christian McCaffrey1
- Mike Evans1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 239.2 | 2.60 | 28.4 | 69.0 | 25.6 | 27 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 12.2 | 57.2 | 5.0 | 27.4 | 5 | 58% |
| Kaelon Black | 5 | 7.4 | 27.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0 | 29% |
| Jordan James | 2 | 2.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 5 | 6.8 | 25% | 4.8 | 65.2 | 3 | 26% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 4.0 | 14% | 3.2 | 41.2 | 3 | 19% |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 3.0 | 12% | 2.5 | 42.0 | 1 | 7% |
| Jacob Cowing | 5 | 1.0 | 4% | 0.2 | 1.8 | 0 | 0% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 5.6 | 21% | 4.2 | 53.6 | 4 | 22% |
| Luke Farrell | 5 | 0.8 | 3% | 0.4 | 3.8 | 0 | 4% |
Commanders vs 49ers: quick answers
Who will win Commanders vs 49ers?
Our sims have the 49ers winning 78% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Commanders at 49ers?
The sims put the total at 52.1 points, with Commanders around 21.4 and 49ers around 30.3.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Commanders vs 49ers?
Christian McCaffrey scores in 70% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.