Sunday, Oct 18 2026. Sorted by edge: how far our sim hit rate sits above what the price needs. Kalshi prices from Oct 18 06:37 UTC and FanDuel lines from Saturday night. These aren't your sportsbook's prices, so check your book's line before you bet.
Updated
Saved in this browser only. Your teams' bets get a gold edge and move to the front.
Single bets where the posted price pays more than our sims say it should, sorted by edge. For every other line, run the Numbers board.
| Player | Bet | Price | Price needs | Our sims | Edge (pts) | EV | Stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks HOU | 40+ rush yds | -132 | 56.9% | 58.5% | +1.6 | +2.8% | 1u |
| Jaleel McLaughlin CLE | Anytime TD | +1600 | 5.9% | 6.5% | +0.6 | +10.5% | 0.1u |
| Corey Kiner NE | Anytime TD | +1600 | 5.9% | 6.5% | +0.6 | +10.5% | 0.1u |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF | 2+ TDs | +1600 | 5.9% | 6.5% | +0.6 | +10.5% | 0.1u |
| Reggie Virgil ARI unconfirmed | Anytime TD | +1900 | 5.0% | 14.8% | +9.8 | +196.0% | 0.25u |
| Khalil Shakir BUF unconfirmed | 60+ rec yds | +250 | 28.6% | 31.3% | +2.7 | +9.5% | 0.5u |
Three games, so the book pays the full price. Shakir's 31% is our own odds because Kalshi hasn't listed him, so most of the edge rides on that leg.
Picked automatically from the sims and graded the same way. Kalshi prices from 2026-10-18 06:37 UTC, sims by NightShiftLines. No book prices loaded: play at the listed price or better.
These legs hit together 2.6x as often as they would if independent. Most books price that in partly; take it only at the play-at price or better.
These legs hit together 2.6x as often as they would if independent. Most books price that in partly; take it only at the play-at price or better.
A real 4.3% shot by the sims, 3.1x the independent odds. Fun money only.
Both score together 1.2x as often as independent odds say.
Unconfirmed rows use our own player odds because no market price exists yet. Treat them as leads, not plays, until a market lists them.
How often a slip cashes across our 10,000 simulated games. 17.7% means it won in about 1,770 of them.
How often a slip has to hit for the price to be fair. At +1039 you need it to win 8.8% of the time just to break even over the long run.
Hit rate minus break-even, in percentage points. Positive means the price pays more than the slip's real chance deserves.
The odds that would make a bet exactly break even given our hit rate. If the book pays more than fair, that's value.
What a bet returns on average over many tries. +10% EV means 1.1u back for every 1u staked in the long run, with lots of variance along the way.
