Cowboys at Packers
Sunday 20:20 ET · Lambeau Field. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
51%Packers win chance
GB -0.8sim spread
53.3sim total
27.2 · 27.2DAL · GB team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love GB | passing TDs Over 1.5 | 63.5% | -174 | market |
| Tyler Goodson DAL | rush attempts Over 1.5 | 60.7% | -155 | our odds |
| Dak Prescott DAL | passing TDs Over 1.5 | 60.0% | -150 | market |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB | receptions Over 1.5 | 59.5% | -147 | market |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL | receptions Over 2.5 | 59.5% | -147 | market |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL | receiving yds Over 24.5 | 59.0% | -144 | market |
| George Pickens DAL | receptions Over 4.5 | 57.5% | -135 | market |
| Jordan Love GB | completions Over 21.5 | 56.0% | -127 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams DAL | 63.5% | -174 | 3 |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB | 52.5% | -111 | 1 |
| Christian Watson GB | 43.5% | +130 | 3 |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL | 42.0% | +138 | 2 |
| George Pickens DAL | 37.5% | +167 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden GB | 37.5% | +167 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft GB | 32.5% | +208 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. GB | 26.0% | +285 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson DAL | 24.5% | +308 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL | 20.5% | +388 | 0 |
First TD scorer (Snap by Snap, 10,000 sims)
- Javonte Williams DAL20.2% · +396
- MarShawn Lloyd GB17.3% · +478
- Christian Watson GB9.9% · +912
- Matthew Golden GB9.6% · +942
- CeeDee Lamb DAL8.7% · +1047
- Tucker Kraft GB8.1% · +1136
DAL · 5 games
Cowboys usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game27.6 #7
- Pass yds / game276.2 #6
- Rush yds / game81.6 #30
- Points allowed / game27.2 #25
- Pass yds allowed / game231.8 #16
- Rush yds allowed / game168.4 #32
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Javonte Williams21 carries · 3 targets
- CeeDee Lamb0 carries · 7 targets
- Ryan Flournoy0 carries · 6 targets
- George Pickens0 carries · 5 targets
- Jake Ferguson0 carries · 4 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Javonte Williams3
- CeeDee Lamb2
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 276.2 | 1.80 | 38.4 | 67.2 | 13.2 | 27 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 14.8 | 55.2 | 4.0 | 18.8 | 7 | 75% |
| Tyler Goodson | 2 | 4.5 | 17.0 | 1.0 | -2.5 | 0 | 4% |
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 10.2 | 27% | 7.8 | 101.4 | 4 | 26% |
| George Pickens | 5 | 8.2 | 22% | 5.4 | 71.0 | 1 | 19% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 5 | 5.4 | 15% | 3.2 | 38.8 | 0 | 22% |
| KaVontae Turpin | 5 | 1.4 | 4% | 0.8 | 7.8 | 1 | 4% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 4.2 | 11% | 3.0 | 20.4 | 3 | 15% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 5 | 1.2 | 3% | 0.6 | 6.6 | 0 | 0% |
GB · 5 games
Packers usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game20.8 #24
- Pass yds / game281.6 #4
- Rush yds / game60.4 #32
- Points allowed / game22.4 #17
- Pass yds allowed / game199.4 #5
- Rush yds allowed / game127.6 #24
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- MarShawn Lloyd11 carries · 3 targets
- Matthew Golden0 carries · 9 targets
- Christian Watson0 carries · 7 targets
- Tucker Kraft1 carry · 5 targets
- Chris Brooks6 carries · 0 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Christian Watson3
- MarShawn Lloyd1
- Matthew Golden1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 5 | 281.6 | 2.00 | 37.0 | 60.5 | -0.4 | 31 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarShawn Lloyd | 5 | 8.0 | 22.4 | 2.6 | 11.0 | 3 | 50% |
| Kaleb Johnson | 5 | 5.4 | 21.2 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0 | 9% |
| Chris Brooks | 4 | 3.8 | 17.5 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 0 | 27% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden | 5 | 8.8 | 24% | 4.8 | 79.4 | 2 | 29% |
| Christian Watson | 5 | 8.0 | 23% | 5.2 | 94.8 | 6 | 23% |
| Skyy Moore | 5 | 2.8 | 7% | 1.4 | 7.0 | 0 | 16% |
| Bo Melton | 5 | 1.6 | 5% | 0.8 | 6.0 | 0 | 0% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | 5 | 5.8 | 16% | 4.0 | 42.4 | 1 | 16% |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 2.3 | 6% | 1.7 | 28.3 | 0 | 3% |
Cowboys vs Packers: quick answers
Who will win Cowboys vs Packers?
Our sims have the Packers winning 51% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Cowboys at Packers?
The sims put the total at 53.3 points, with Cowboys around 27.2 and Packers around 27.2.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Cowboys vs Packers?
Javonte Williams scores in 64% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.