Patriots at Bears
Thursday 20:15 ET · Soldier Field. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
54%Bears win chance
CHI -1.7sim spread
49.5sim total
– · –NE · CHI team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry NE | receptions Over 2.5 | 58.3% | -140 | our odds |
| Corey Kiner NE | rushing yds Over 9.5 | 56.7% | -131 | our odds |
| Drake Maye NE | interceptions Over 0.5 | 56.4% | -129 | our odds |
| Roschon Johnson CHI | receiving yds Over 4.5 | 55.9% | -127 | our odds |
| Rome Odunze CHI | receptions Over 3.5 | 54.9% | -121 | our odds |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE | rushing yds Over 9.5 | 54.4% | -119 | our odds |
| Kalif Raymond CHI | receiving yds Over 29.5 | 54.0% | -118 | our odds |
| DeMario Douglas NE | receiving yds Over 29.5 | 54.0% | -117 | our odds |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift CHI | 52.9% | -112 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE | 37.6% | +166 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III CHI | 34.3% | +192 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs NE | 30.9% | +224 | 1 |
| Colston Loveland CHI | 29.4% | +240 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze CHI | 27.4% | +265 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas NE | 26.9% | +271 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond CHI | 23.0% | +334 | 0 |
| Drake Maye NE | 22.6% | +343 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry NE | 22.4% | +346 | 0 |
NE · 5 games
Patriots usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game22.0 #19
- Pass yds / game254.8 #11
- Rush yds / game127.2 #10
- Points allowed / game18.8 #4
- Pass yds allowed / game222.6 #9
- Rush yds allowed / game90.8 #6
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Rhamondre Stevenson5 carries · 2 targets
- Romeo Doubs0 carries · 5 targets
- Drake Maye4 carries · 0 targets
- Mack Hollins0 carries · 4 targets
- Hunter Henry0 carries · 4 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Eli Raridon1
- TreVeyon Henderson1
- Romeo Doubs1
- DeMario Douglas1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 5 | 245.6 | 1.60 | 30.2 | 65.6 | 32.2 | 25 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 11.4 | 45.4 | 3.8 | 22.2 | 2 | 38% |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 4 | 10.5 | 40.8 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 1 | 15% |
| Corey Kiner | 5 | 4.0 | 16.2 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 0 | 15% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 4.6 | 15% | 2.6 | 43.8 | 2 | 21% |
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 4.4 | 15% | 2.6 | 29.4 | 2 | 12% |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5.0 | 17% | 3.8 | 52.2 | 0 | 17% |
| Efton Chism III | 4 | 3.2 | 10% | 2.2 | 24.5 | 1 | 4% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 3.8 | 13% | 3.0 | 35.4 | 1 | 17% |
| Eli Raridon | 4 | 2.2 | 7% | 2.0 | 25.2 | 1 | 12% |
CHI · 5 games
Bears usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game23.8 #14
- Pass yds / game234.2 #18
- Rush yds / game173.2 #1
- Points allowed / game19.2 #5
- Pass yds allowed / game228.6 #12
- Rush yds allowed / game96.0 #10
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- D'Andre Swift21 carries · 1 target
- Kyle Monangai14 carries · 1 target
- Luther Burden III2 carries · 8 targets
- Colston Loveland0 carries · 6 targets
- Roschon Johnson3 carries · 2 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Caleb Williams1
- Luther Burden III1
- Kyle Monangai1
- D'Andre Swift1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | 136.3 | 0.00 | 21.3 | 65.6 | 6.0 | 15 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 15.6 | 70.8 | 3.2 | 22.8 | 4 | 40% |
| Kyle Monangai | 4 | 15.0 | 81.0 | 1.2 | 9.8 | 3 | 26% |
| Roschon Johnson | 3 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 13.7 | 0 | 6% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 5 | 7.0 | 22% | 4.6 | 53.2 | 1 | 29% |
| Rome Odunze | 5 | 5.8 | 18% | 3.4 | 54.6 | 0 | 14% |
| Kalif Raymond | 5 | 5.4 | 18% | 4.8 | 45.2 | 1 | 14% |
| Jahdae Walker | 2 | 1.0 | 3% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 4% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 5 | 4.6 | 14% | 2.6 | 22.0 | 0 | 21% |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 1.8 | 6% | 1.0 | 11.2 | 1 | 0% |
Patriots vs Bears: quick answers
Who will win Patriots vs Bears?
Our sims have the Bears winning 54% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Patriots at Bears?
The sims put the total at 49.5 points, with Patriots around – and Bears around –.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Patriots vs Bears?
D'Andre Swift scores in 53% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.