Steelers at Buccaneers
Sunday 13:00 ET · Raymond James Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
56%Steelers win chance
TB +2.6sim spread
38.7sim total
20.2 · 18.5PIT · TB team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalon Daniels TB | passing TDs Over 0.5 | 65.5% | -190 | market |
| Jalon Daniels TB | passing yds Over 149.5 | 65.5% | -190 | market |
| Bucky Irving TB | receptions Over 1.5 | 60.5% | -153 | market |
| DK Metcalf PIT | receptions Over 3.5 | 58.5% | -141 | market |
| Jalon Daniels TB | rushing yds Over 29.5 | 58.0% | -138 | market |
| Jaylen Warren PIT | receiving yds Over 24.5 | 57.5% | -135 | market |
| Sean Tucker TB | rush attempts Over 1.5 | 54.9% | -122 | our odds |
| Darnell Washington PIT | receptions Over 2.5 | 54.5% | -120 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren PIT | 43.5% | +130 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving TB | 35.5% | +182 | 2 |
| DK Metcalf PIT | 32.5% | +208 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka TB | 24.5% | +308 | 1 |
| Germie Bernard PIT | 24.5% | +308 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth PIT | 23.5% | +326 | 1 |
| Darnell Washington PIT | 20.5% | +388 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell TB | 19.5% | +413 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle PIT | 19.5% | +413 | 0 |
| Jalon Daniels TB | 18.5% | +441 | 0 |
PIT · 5 games
Steelers usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game22.2 #18
- Pass yds / game246.8 #13
- Rush yds / game101.2 #19
- Points allowed / game21.8 #12
- Pass yds allowed / game233.6 #17
- Rush yds allowed / game103.4 #13
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Jaylen Warren3 carries · 5 targets
- Pat Freiermuth0 carries · 5 targets
- Germie Bernard0 carries · 3 targets
- Darnell Washington0 carries · 3 targets
- Travis Homer3 carries · 0 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Roman Wilson2
- Pat Freiermuth1
- Jaylen Warren1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 246.8 | 2.00 | 36.8 | 59.8 | 3.6 | 23 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 14.0 | 82.0 | 5.2 | 46.0 | 2 | 33% |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 7.5 | 18.5 | 3.5 | 14.0 | 0 | 11% |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 1.7 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 33% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 7.4 | 21% | 3.8 | 45.0 | 1 | 5% |
| Roman Wilson | 5 | 5.0 | 14% | 2.8 | 37.6 | 2 | 10% |
| Germie Bernard | 4 | 5.0 | 15% | 3.2 | 35.0 | 0 | 14% |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 4.0 | 11% | 2.3 | 29.7 | 0 | 0% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 5 | 5.2 | 15% | 3.8 | 33.8 | 4 | 24% |
| Darnell Washington | 5 | 3.2 | 9% | 2.2 | 26.2 | 1 | 14% |
TB · 5 games
Buccaneers usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game20.0 #25
- Pass yds / game190.4 #26
- Rush yds / game133.0 #7
- Points allowed / game22.4 #14
- Pass yds allowed / game234.6 #18
- Rush yds allowed / game72.8 #2
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Bucky Irving12 carries · 5 targets
- Emeka Egbuka1 carry · 5 targets
- Baker Mayfield5 carries · 0 targets
- Sean Tucker4 carries · 0 targets
- Kenny Gainwell1 carry · 3 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Bucky Irving2
- Emeka Egbuka1
- Ted Hurst III1
- Sean Tucker1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 205.0 | 0.67 | 32.0 | 63.5 | 21.7 | 16 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 5 | 15.4 | 81.2 | 3.6 | 14.2 | 3 | 48% |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 10.8 | 1 | 4% |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 16% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 5 | 6.6 | 23% | 4.2 | 38.4 | 2 | 25% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 4.2 | 15% | 3.8 | 35.8 | 0 | 5% |
| Ted Hurst III | 4 | 4.0 | 13% | 2.0 | 32.0 | 1 | 10% |
| Tez Johnson | 5 | 2.0 | 7% | 1.0 | 27.6 | 0 | 10% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 5 | 5.4 | 19% | 3.6 | 36.4 | 0 | 10% |
| Payne Durham | 2 | 1.0 | 3% | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0% |
Steelers vs Buccaneers: quick answers
Who will win Steelers vs Buccaneers?
Our sims have the Steelers winning 56% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Steelers at Buccaneers?
The sims put the total at 38.7 points, with Steelers around 20.2 and Buccaneers around 18.5.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Steelers vs Buccaneers?
Jaylen Warren scores in 44% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.