Titans at Colts
Sunday 13:00 ET · Lucas Oil Stadium. Our sims, both teams' usage, red-zone looks and the TD board, rebuilt every refresh.
Updated
74%Colts win chance
IND -6.6sim spread
44.7sim total
18.6 · 26.2TEN · IND team totals
Most likely props at the main line
How often each prop hits across 10,000 sims, with the fair price. A high hit rate isn't an edge on its own: compare the fair price to your book's before you bet.
| Player | Prop | Our sims | Fair price | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward TEN | passing TDs Over 0.5 | 68.0% | -213 | market |
| Tony Pollard TEN | rush + rec yds Over 59.5 | 61.0% | -156 | market |
| Tyjae Spears TEN | rushing yds Over 9.5 | 58.5% | -141 | market |
| Cam Ward TEN | rushing yds Over 9.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Jonathan Taylor IND | receiving yds Over 14.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Tyler Warren IND | receptions Over 4.5 | 55.5% | -125 | market |
| Cam Ward TEN | completions Over 19.5 | 54.0% | -117 | market |
| Carnell Tate TEN | receiving yds Over 49.5 | 54.0% | -117 | market |
Anytime TD board
| Player | Scores in our sims | Fair price | Team's first TD (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor IND | 69.5% | -228 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard TEN | 37.5% | +167 | 1 |
| Tyler Warren IND | 36.5% | +174 | 2 |
| Josh Downs IND | 31.5% | +217 | 0 |
| Carnell Tate TEN | 23.5% | +326 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen IND | 21.5% | +365 | 1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN | 18.5% | +441 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones IND | 16.5% | +506 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell IND | 15.5% | +545 | 0 |
| Cam Ward TEN | 14.5% | +590 | 1 |
TEN · 5 games
Titans usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game11.6 #32
- Pass yds / game179.2 #30
- Rush yds / game82.6 #27
- Points allowed / game21.8 #13
- Pass yds allowed / game228.6 #13
- Rush yds allowed / game114.0 #17
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Tony Pollard18 carries · 0 targets
- Cam Ward6 carries · 0 targets
- Elic Ayomanor0 carries · 6 targets
- Gunnar Helm0 carries · 4 targets
- Wan'Dale Robinson0 carries · 4 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Elic Ayomanor1
- Cam Ward1
- Wan'Dale Robinson1
- Tony Pollard1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 5 | 179.2 | 0.60 | 31.0 | 63.2 | 11.8 | 16 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 5 | 13.6 | 54.6 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 1 | 64% |
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 3.4 | 13.0 | 3.2 | 13.6 | 0 | 7% |
| Nicholas Singleton | 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 7% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate | 5 | 7.4 | 27% | 4.6 | 54.8 | 0 | 6% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6.0 | 19% | 4.4 | 35.2 | 2 | 25% |
| Elic Ayomanor | 5 | 2.4 | 9% | 1.2 | 26.0 | 1 | 38% |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 2.0 | 8% | 1.2 | 20.2 | 0 | 0% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Helm | 5 | 2.6 | 9% | 1.8 | 12.0 | 0 | 25% |
| Daniel Bellinger | 5 | 1.4 | 5% | 1.0 | 6.0 | 0 | 6% |
IND · 5 games
Colts usage
Offense and defense ranks
- Points scored / game24.8 #10
- Pass yds / game204.2 #23
- Rush yds / game100.8 #20
- Points allowed / game27.6 #27
- Pass yds allowed / game268.0 #28
- Rush yds allowed / game130.2 #27
Red-zone looks (inside the 20)
- Jonathan Taylor20 carries · 2 targets
- Tyler Warren1 carry · 4 targets
- Josh Downs0 carries · 4 targets
- Daniel Jones4 carries · 0 targets
- Keenan Allen0 carries · 4 targets
Scored the team's first TD
- Jonathan Taylor2
- Tyler Warren2
- Keenan Allen1
QB
| Player | Games | Pass yds/g | Pass TD/g | Att/g | Comp % | Rush yds/g | RZ att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 204.2 | 0.60 | 35.2 | 61.4 | 5.0 | 20 |
RB
| Player | Games | Carries/g | Rush yds/g | Targets/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ carry share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 5 | 20.2 | 79.6 | 3.8 | 21.2 | 6 | 71% |
| Seth McGowan | 5 | 3.4 | 12.2 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0 | 11% |
WR
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Downs | 5 | 6.8 | 21% | 4.0 | 49.8 | 0 | 22% |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 7.2 | 21% | 4.5 | 36.2 | 1 | 22% |
| Laquon Treadwell | 5 | 3.8 | 11% | 2.2 | 31.4 | 0 | 17% |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 3.5 | 12% | 1.5 | 14.5 | 0 | 0% |
TE
| Player | Games | Targets/g | Target share | Rec/g | Rec yds/g | TDs | RZ target share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | 5 | 7.2 | 21% | 6.0 | 42.6 | 3 | 22% |
| Andrew Ogletree | 4 | 0.8 | 2% | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0% |
Titans vs Colts: quick answers
Who will win Titans vs Colts?
Our sims have the Colts winning 74% of 10,000 runs. That's a chance, not a guarantee.
What's the projected total for Titans at Colts?
The sims put the total at 44.7 points, with Titans around 18.6 and Colts around 26.2.
Who's most likely to score a TD in Titans vs Colts?
Jonathan Taylor scores in 70% of our sims, the highest in this game.
Usage, red-zone and first-TD numbers come from nflverse play-by-play (CC-BY 4.0) for 2026 games already played. Win chances, lines and prop odds come from our 10,000-game sims built on Kalshi's public prices. For entertainment and analysis only. 21+.